Barack Obama announced today that 30,000 more American combat personnel were destined for the theatre of war in Afghanistan.The earliest deployments of this surge are expected to occur by Christmas.This influx of American soldiers will bring troop levels up from 71,000 to its highest level since the war began in 2001, at about 100,000 soldiers deployed.In his speech Tuesday, Barack Obama also stated that America will begin withdrawing its forces in 2011, a process which is expected to take up to three years.Defining a reasonable ‘end’ to hostilities and the American led presence in the nation has brought intense criticism from republicans and democrats alike in the United States, but also from analysts around the world.It is said that establishing a concrete date has given the Taliban the impression that victory can be achieved, provided they can endure the temporary conditions of the surge.
The influx of troops to the wartorn nation is undoubtedly a mirror of America’s previous policy on Iraq, where a timely ‘surge’ of forces is credited with containing and mitigating the previously widespread insurgency.The basic principle behind the surge is that elevation of troop numbers will create not only immediate security, but increased patrols will generate a number of close, quick contacts in the coming year, impeding the Taliban’s ability to operate.Britain’s Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced just this week intentions to move 500 more troops to the country, elevating his country’s presence to 10,000 troops.Other regional powers, India and Pakistan have expressed mixed reactions to the announcement that troop levels will be sharply increased by roughly 50%.
"As far as India is concerned we welcome the continued commitment of the US and by extension of the NATO effort in Afghanistan because our prime minister has repeatedly made clear India believes that entire international community has stake in the continued stability of Afghanistan and in the success of the democratically elected government of President Karzai in establishing his authority throughout the country. It is very clear that as long as the Taliban and Al-Qaeda elements are free to wreak havoc in Afghanistan, that the aspirations of the Afghan people for decent life, peace and security, will not be fulfilled, and for that reason the continued military pressure on them is an important security component of the challenge facing Afghanistan,"
-Shashi Tharoor, Indian Minister of State for External Affairs
Pakistan, despite support for the US led NATO/ISAF war against the Taliban militants, with whom they are also militarily engaged on their own side of the border, communicated fear over potential ‘fallout’ for their nation.The predominant fear in Pakistani political and security communities is that a ramping-up of troop levels in Afghanistan will potentially intensify the conflict in South Waziristan as militants increase the scope of their own operations to counter the changing situation.In tandem with local criticism, the United Nations has called for a ‘transition strategy’, which espouses moving responsibility for development and security increasingly into the hands of Afghanistan’s various governmental agencies.
"I think we should talk about transition strategy, which is something completely different,"
-Kai Eide, UN Secretary General’s Special Representative to Afghanistan
Perhaps in the most disheartening comments made to date, a Russian General, Victor Yermakov who commanded his nation’s 40th army at war in Afghanistan between 1982-83, stated that America now faces the same fate his nation’s military encountered. His commentary also espoused a ‘transition’ away from traditional military engagement towards further peace support, peace enforcement and operations other than war (OOTW). "Restoring Afghanistan's economy, its industrial enterprises, its education system, schools and mosques will increase your authority. War can only evoke resistance. Afghans regard war only as an attempt to enslave them."
What is coming in the weeks and months ahead as thousands of American soldiers from Regular force and National Guard units across the United States prepare for their deployment, remains to be seen. Whether the surge will be successful and this decision by President Obama can be credited as a keystone victory in the almost decade-long struggle against fundamental tribal militancy is unclear. What is clear is that the international community’s consensus about how to deal with the Afghan problem and popular support for the NATO coalition undertakings in Afghanistan is dwindling.
With firm exit dates now given by the Americans and the Canadians, it will fall to the rest of the nations in the alliance structure to determine a timeline for their own tactical and logistical withdrawal.Still, a decision to send more troops in the short-term, meeting General Stanley McChrystal’s September request by a little over three quarters and the simultaneous announcement of a definitive timeline for ‘success’ represents a wise political move.The president is simultaneously providing the necessary personnel to achieve his military officer’s objectives while reassuring the public and critics that the war in Afghanistan is not a war without end, but rather one in which he intends to be victorious.
I have selected 'The Great Game' as the title of this web-log in homage to the historical roots of the Afghan conflict. Perpetually one of the great crossroads of imperial conquest and expansion, the Afghan region has found itself beholden to a multitude of successive regimes, both internal and external.
This has left the various ethnic and cultural groups which comprise 'The Afghan People' in perpetual flux. They have been left to lead what life they can manage amid the chaos of uprisings, transitions and titanic clashes between these mightier states.
This Log is being undertaken as a University Assignment for the purposes of developing my understanding of International Relations. The end result will be the chronicling of major events pertaining to the nation of Afghanistan and its peoples from roughly the 11th of September, 2009 through to early January 2010. I will be culling my sources from a variety of reputable and scholarly international news and governmental sources.
The interrelated issue of International Terrorism will undoubtedly get much attention here. Peace Support Operations and Operations Other Than War currently underway in the nation of Afghanistan are in response to the widespread use by International Terror groups of that same country for their own spiritual and ideological center. As the control and stability of the Afghan nation represents somewhat the 'center of gravity' for the enemies of the west, it is very difficult to discuss events that occur within its borders and not make reference to those pertinent ones which occur without.
A media coup for a detainee in Guantanamo for instance, can have untold effects on the capability of or mandate for the NATO ISAF mission in the region. Simple systems can be seen to generate complex results and complex systems can be seen to generate simple results. It is my intent to encapsulate in this log the full spectrum of forthcoming issues regarding Afghanistan both as the shattered nation it is, and the strong, thoroughly stabilized democracy that it can be.
The culmination of this Log will be the publication of an Essay (also on the same topics, also for the same course). It will cover almost 65 years of Afghan History, establishing the linkage between the nation's fragmented present and its past. Additionally, the Essay will explain exactly how it is that 'International Terrorism' as we now know it, came to be, and how it was that the enemies of the West came to call the nation of Afghanistan their home.
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